The first casualty of all combat is the plan. Intelligence assessments expire as soon as they are issued. Traditional intelligence analysis follows a cycle starting with a question and producing a static answer that describes a situation and indicates a future eventuality. Static products are not fluid and cannot adapt to a changing information environment.

“An alternative approach to the traditional [intelligence] cycle is to make all stakeholders (including customers) part of the intelligence process” (Clark, pg. 17 Intelligence Analysis: A Target Centric Approach, 2004). The Target Centric Approach is an active objective oriented approach. At its center is a fluid, adaptive model of the target of intelligence. All stakeholders, including operators, analysts, administrators, etc can input new information, requirements, expertise, etc into the intelligence process which instantly adapts to the new input. In order to facilitate this process Target Centric intelligence systems need several components including active data structures, common operating pictures, and dynamic algorithms that organize, integrate, and reassess the larger body of information when new information is input into the system.

DAGIR Co. has significant experience in developing these systems. DAGIR Co. analytics use structured analysis to define analytic models of intelligence targets. Analytic algorithms are then able to incorporate and analyze new information in reference to the larger body of information in an automated, real-time fashion. DAGIRCo.’s Meth Hunter is an analytic system that analyzes pseudoephedrine purchase logs to identify meth producing conspiracies. In one of the first datasets the Meth Hunter analyzed two pseudoephedrine “smurfing” cells were identified. Among the hundreds of thousands of data points there were two local purchases made by a woman from two counties away (2 hours drive south). She turned out be the mother of one of the conspirators of one of the cells. Another woman who happened to be the first woman’s neighbor two counties away also had two local purchases. The second woman was the mother of a conspirator in the other cell. This weak connection indicated that the two cells were one. Additionally, this indicated that there were unidentified nodes that connected the larger network. Investigators went back into the data. Weaker connections, that were previously considered too weak to indicate criminality, now identified the cell controller. When a few suspects were questioned using the name of the cell controller, they confessed and cooperated with investigators.

The Meth Hunter provided a fluid intelligence product that automatically adapted to new information; changed the model of the intelligence target; shifted the focus of the investigation; and provided actionable intelligence that provided investigators with the key information that cracked the case.